China’s October trade data was the same, worse and sort of better than expected.
NAB reports that China’s overall trade surplus of $61.6bn was in line with expectations, however export and import growth rates worsened. Exports were worse than expected, down almost 7% y/y, compared to the predicted -3.7%. On the bright side, imports were better than expected, down almost 19% y/y, up from -20.4% in September but a bigger fall than the expected -15.2%. Click here to read NAB’s Markets Today report.
The Guardian writes about how this will affect US interest rates, read the article here.
Bloomberg predicts that the drop in exports will require more government stimulus in China, read the article here.
Four out of 41 analysts believe the RMB will appreciate by June 2016
Prior to the PBOC’s devaluation of the yuan on 11 August, 25 out of 40 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predicted an appreciation by the EOFY. The yuan has dropped 2.3 percent this year and reached a four-year low after the devaluation. To read more about what this increasingly accommodating monetary policy may do for growth and optimism, forex reserves and the next US election, click here.
The four waves of Australia’s Asian ties
Tim Harcourt neatly summarises Australia’s economic engagement with Asia for ANZ. Harcourt, also known as the ‘Airport Economist’, segments our regional history since 1957 into four periods. Delineating each era by changes in landmark economic and trade policies. Click here to read the full article.
RBA leaves the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent
Here are 3 important China-centric points from the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy:
- While the US and euro area economies have recovered, the Asian region has slowed down. Inflation has generally been steady worldwide, though at rates below most central banks’ targets.
- Growth in Australia’s major trading partners is expected to be slightly below its decade average over the next two years.
- Possible for the slow-down in China’s industrial sector to spread into other parts of the economy that have been unaffected thus far.
Westpac explains: how does the rate hold affect the AUD?
Sean Callow, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac discusses the impact of the RBA’s decision to hold the cash rate on the Australian dollar, click here for the video (YouTube).
This brief summarises a range of publicly available news articles in both Chinese and English and AustCham takes no responsibility for the accuracy of the information in these articles. In addition, the views and opinions reflected in these articles are not necessarily representative of AustCham.
AustCham Beijing’s Financial Services Working Group is chaired by Zhongmin Zha (Westpac Banking Corporation). For more details on how to get involved in the AustCham Beijing Financial Services Working Group, please contact Andrew Britz