中国澳大利亚商会会长就两会与全球贸易环境接受CGTN采访
Business Confidence Depends on Predictability in a Shifting Global Trade Environment
企业信心有赖于可预期性：在变化中的全球贸易环境里稳预期、促合作
On the sidelines of China’s annual “Two Sessions” in March 2026, AustCham China Chair Vaughn Barber spoke with China Global Television Network (CGTN) about the global economic environment and the policy signals China is sending to international business.
2026年3月全国两会期间，中国澳大利亚商会会长冯栢文（Vaughn Barber）接受中国国际电视台（CGTN）采访，就全球经济环境及中国政策方向向国际商界释放的信号分享了他的观点。
His central message was clear: in a world where trade policy can change quickly, predictability becomes a real competitive advantage for economies seeking to attract investment and support business confidence.
他的核心观点很明确：在一个贸易政策可能迅速变化的世界里，可预期性正成为吸引投资、稳定企业信心的重要优势。
Why this matters for business
为什么这对企业很重要
During the interview, Barber noted that uncertainty in the global trading environment remains a major concern for international businesses. For companies operating across borders, policy unpredictability often poses an even greater challenge than tariffs themselves.
采访中，冯栢文指出，全球贸易环境中的不确定性仍是跨国企业关注的主要问题。对于从事跨境经营的企业而言，政策的不可预测性往往比关税本身带来的挑战更大。
He highlighted that the policy priorities outlined during the Two Sessions—strengthening domestic demand, maintaining economic stability, advancing technological and industrial upgrading, and further opening up China’s services and innovation sectors—are sending positive signals to the international business community.
他指出，两会释放的政策重点——增强内需、保持经济稳定、推动技术与产业升级，以及进一步扩大服务业和创新领域开放——正向国际商界传递积极信号。
The real challenge: uncertainty vs. tariffs
真正的挑战：不确定性 vs. 关税
Expanding on these themes, Barber observed that recent developments in global tariff policy highlight how quickly the trade policy environment can shift. The real challenge for internationally operating businesses is often uncertainty rather than tariffs themselves.
冯栢文进一步指出，近期全球关税政策的发展再次说明，贸易政策环境可能在短时间内发生变化。对于跨国经营的企业而言，真正的挑战往往来自不确定性，而不仅仅是关税本身。
These dynamics can be particularly challenging for small and medium-sized firms, which often have fewer resources to absorb sudden cost increases or reorganise supply chains. However, uncertainty affects businesses of all sizes, potentially making them more cautious about investing, hiring, and innovating.
这种变化对中小企业的影响尤为明显，因为它们通常缺乏足够资源来应对成本突然上升或供应链调整。但不确定性同样会影响各种规模的企业，使它们在投资、招聘和创新方面可能更加谨慎。
The global supply chain response
全球供应链的应对
Barber noted that companies around the world are adjusting how their supply chains are organised. What we are seeing globally is not so much decoupling as the emergence of more regional production ecosystems, as firms diversify markets and organise production closer to where demand is growing.
冯栢文指出，全球企业也在重新调整供应链布局。从全球范围来看，与其说是“脱钩”，不如说是区域化生产体系的逐渐形成。企业通过市场多元化，并将生产布局更靠近需求增长的地区。
Evidence from AustCham China’s Doing Business in China reports points to a pragmatic response from business. As the bilateral relationship has stabilised, most foreign firms are not retreating from the Chinese market but are adapting their strategies and deepening engagement.
中国澳大利亚商会发布的《在华营商报告》也反映出企业的务实应对。随着双边关系逐步稳定，大多数外资企业并未撤离中国市场，而是通过调整战略、深化参与，为把握两国经济合作带来的新机遇做好准备。
The opportunity: combining strengths
机遇所在：优势互补
For Australian companies, China remains a major market in many traditional areas of complementarity, including resources, agriculture, education, and high-quality consumer goods.
对于澳大利亚企业而言，中国仍然是许多传统优势互补领域的重要市场，例如资源、农业、教育以及高品质消费品等。
However, Barber argued that the opportunity increasingly lies in combining the strengths of both sides—for example, Chinese technology and industrial capability with Australian projects, resources, and a highly skilled workforce—to develop new forms of commercial cooperation in areas such as:
与此同时，冯栢文认为，新的机遇在于将双方优势相结合——例如，将中国的技术与产业能力，与澳大利亚的项目、资源及高技能人才相结合——在以下领域开展新的商业合作：
- clean energy and EV supply chains
- healthcare and life sciences
- advanced manufacturing
- sustainable agrifood systems
- 清洁能源和电动汽车供应链
- 医疗健康和生命科学
- 先进制造
- 可持续农业和食品体系
Looking ahead: predictability as a competitive advantage
展望：可预期性作为竞争优势
In a complex global environment, strengthening economic engagement and maintaining open trade relationships remain essential for sustaining business confidence and long-term cooperation.
在复杂多变的全球环境下，加强经济合作、保持开放的贸易关系，对于稳定企业信心和推动长期合作仍然至关重要。
Barber concluded that in a world where trade policy can change quickly, predictability becomes a real competitive advantage for economies seeking to attract investment and support business confidence.
冯栢文总结道，在贸易政策可能迅速变化的世界中，可预期性正成为吸引投资并稳定企业信心的重要优势。
AustCham China remains committed to fostering dialogue, trust and practical collaboration between Australian and Chinese businesses, helping translate opportunity into mutually beneficial outcomes.
中国澳大利亚商会将继续致力于促进中澳企业间的对话、互信与务实合作，推动双方将合作机遇转化为互利共赢的实际成果。
The full interview is available on CGTN’s official channels.
完整采访视频可在CGTN官方渠道观看。
